Ty's Oscar Predictions, 2026

Note: I'll be hosting an Oscar party at the West Newton Theatre Sunday night, March 15. We'll watch the ceremonies on the big screen, have trivia contests during the commercial breaks, give prizes to the winning audience ballots, argue whether Timothée Chalamet should be forced to watch "Aida" with his eyes taped open "Clockwork Orange"-style, and generally have a high old time. Tickets are $25 and $20 for West Newton Cinema members. The party starts at 6 p.m. and the ceremonies start at 7 p.m. Come and join us! It beats sitting at home and throwing popcorn at the screen.

To paraphrase Rick Blaine in “Casablanca,” “The problems of a little golden guy with no visible genitalia don’t amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world.” In other words, you’re excused for thinking the Academy Awards are the last things to care about when President Baby Huey and Kegstand Pete are dropping bombs on children with no war strategery, no exit plan and nary a thought to a teetering global economy. But, hey, party on, Oscar – amiright? I've been handicapping these things for something like four decades now and I might as well keep it up until the 100th anniversary of the Academy Awards in 2028 or the total collapse of the world order, whichever comes first. So strap in.

For the first time in quite a while Oscar night may actually be suspenseful, since two very good movies are in contention for most of the major awards. Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another" feels bizarrely prescient in its wild and woolly VistaVision canvas of an America under siege by its own government, with the burnt-out rebels of the Baby Boom/Gen-X generations passing the torch to the ready and willing Z-babies. The film's a call to revolution masquerading as a sprawling underground comic book, and the fact that it has caught fire with younger moviegoers can be taken as a sign of hope.

Then there's Ryan Coogler's "Sinners," a film on which I have already discoursed at great length, so I will only say that it's a hellaciously ambitious piece of moviemaking that works as entertainment, art, filmcraft, horror, American history, a crash course in the blues, and a TED Talk on how the creative expressions of a people this country brought over in chains has become the bedrock and primary export of our culture through a process that, as well-intended as it may be, is nothing if not vampirism.

So: Two excellent movies from two master filmmakers, and the fact that one of them has to "win" is ludicrous on the face and in the bones of it. But that's part of American culture, too – the need for winners and, by extension, the necessity of losers. Every one of the dozens of nominated artists in the Dolby Theatre Sunday night will be there because they have been deemed by their peers to be at the absolute top of their game, and yet we still search their faces at the moment the envelope is opened for evidence of disappointment – the drama and the entertainment of schadenfreude.

Remember this, then: Whoever or whatever takes home the Oscar in any given category does not render the others any less worthy, and the fact that almost every nominated movie is (or soon will be) available on VOD levels the field even further, even when some of them are plainly better served by the theatrical experience. (cough "Train Dreams" cough)

I expect the traditional "In Memoriam" segment to sting harder this year, as the giants of a previous generation – the Redfords and Duvalls and Keatons and Hackmans – begin to fall, and with them the popular culture they bestrode. With them, too, go the movies as we once knew them – leading the discourse, experienced en masse, the campfire around which the stories we told ourselves were spun. Movies still mattered more than television when the dead of 2025 were alive and in the freshness of their primes, but now they're mostly experienced through television when they're not being cut into shards to scatter on YouTube and TikTok, where they become diminished by the images streaming in from real life. You could argue – I would argue – that the two-hour motion picture stopped being a societal organizing principle quite some time ago, and that the most important movies of 2025 were the crowd-sourced phone videos that captured the murders of Renee Good and Alex Pretti: Mosaics of public witness that altered public consciousness far more profoundly than anything that came out of Hollywood.

So is the form dead? Not even close, and all you have to do is watch "Sinners" or "One Battle" to know it – or any of the other nominees, or movies that didn't make this year's cut, like "A Little Prayer" or "No Other Choice" or "Sorry, Baby." All alive and kicking and, every so often, reconnecting with a mass audience that's ready to hear what they have to say. Whichever film takes home Best Picture, be it Ryan Coogler's or Paul Thomas Anderson's, both have won the larger prize. They got seen and talked about and argued with, and they injected themselves into the way we live, lighting up synapses we didn't know were there, altering the possibilities. This is how things change. "Sinners" forces us to reconsider how the story has been told in the past; "One Battle After Another" forces us to consider how it could be told differently going forward, how we could tell it differently. To quote Perfidia Beverly Hills, "Snap, crackle, pop, baby." Time to get a move on.

Here are my predictions for this year's Academy Awards:

Best Picture

"Bugonia"

"F1"

"Frankenstein"

"Hamnet"

"Marty Supreme"

"One Battle After Another"

"The Secret Agent"

"Sentimental Value"

"Sinners"

"Train Dreams"

Will Win: “Sinners”

Should Win: “Sinners”

Shouldn't Be Here: “F1”

Was Robbed: “It Was Just an Accident”

This is a really eclectic line-up for Oscar: Two films from other countries (“Secret Agent” and “Sentimental Value”), two horror movies (“Sinners” and “Frankenstein”), one shaggy-dog call to revolution (“One Battle”), one commercial studio film (“F1”) that wasn’t all that commercial, one bonkers three-character whatsit (“Bugonia”), and one star vehicle (“Marty Supreme)” seemingly designed to be as obnoxiously off-putting as possible. In this company, “Hamnet” looks like a conventional period film and “Train Dreams” like a classic Sundance indie. That wide net is welcome, though, even if it leaves no room for other contenders, including Jafar Panahi’s brilliant black comedy “It Was Just an Accident” (the title alone could stand in for the Trump administration’s war strategy in Iran). “One Battle” has been racking up wins among critics’ groups and elsewhere, including the critical Producers’ Guild of America; it's been the odds-on favorite for weeks, and if you want to call it the best movie of 2025, you go right ahead – it's awfully damn good. Some of us, however, know that that designation belongs to the other movie that grabs hold of the third rail of American culture and race, and in more daringly compact and considered fashion. More importantly, there's been a real sense that that feeling has grown in recent weeks, that the momentum of "One Battle" has leveled off, and that "Sinners" may emerge victorious. In other words, we've got a horse race, folks, and it's neck and neck in the home stretch.

 Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, "One Battle After Another"

Ryan Coogler, "Sinners"

Chloé Zhao, "Hamnet"

Josh Safdie, "Marty Supreme"

Joachim Trier, "Sentimental Value"

Will Win: Anderson

Should Win: Coogler

Shouldn't Be Here: Safdie

Was Robbed: Clint Bentley, “Train Dreams”

The consensus is that Paul Thomas Anderson has been around so long now and turned out so many films that are considered modern classics (“Boogie Nights,” “Magnolia,” “There Will be Blood” and my personal favorite, “Phantom Thread”) that the time has come to bring him out of the cold of indie maverickdom into the warm embrace of his industry peers. Or something. And that would be fine if Ryan Coogler hadn’t topped the proving of his commercial bona fides (the “Black Panther” and “Creed” franchises) by making the most deeply personal yet thematically wide-reaching and powerful movie of his career. Would a PTA win represent Hollywood racism in action? I don’t necessarily think it’s a factor in this particular two-way race – but, given Academy history, it’s also not not a factor. (On the other hand, the chance to make Coogler the first Black filmmaker to ever win this award will have its attractions to voters as well.) In any case, good for Anderson and expect Coogler to keep on his upward trajectory; he’s already one of the very best we have. If you ask me, the Safdie movie that belongs in this category is 2019's “Uncut Gems,” compared to which “Marty Supreme” feels like a sprawling, less lethal little brother. By contrast, Clint Bentley’s sure, steady and subtle hand on the throttle of “Train Dreams” is exactly the kind of exquisite filmmaking the Oscars traditionally ignore.

 Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, "Marty Supreme"

Leonardo DiCaprio, "One Battle After Another"

Ethan Hawke, "Blue Moon"

Michael B. Jordan, "Sinners"

Wagner Moura, "The Secret Agent"

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan

Should Win: Michael B. Jordan

Shouldn't Be Here: Wagner Moura

Was Robbed: Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”

This category was Chalamet’s to win until he seemed to have trouble leaving Marty Mauser at home, swaggering his way through interviews, dissing opera and the ballet and generally coming off like an egotistical twerp. Hollywood loves charismatic young talents, and Chalamet has put in the work to qualify. What Hollywood doesn’t like are charismatic young talents who act like they know they’re charismatic young talents, a somewhat silly Catch-22 that nevertheless has real-world application. Just about everybody except hardcore Chalamaniacs feel the kid’s due for a spanking at this point, and that’s great, because it means that Michael B. Jordan is now the odds-on favorite to win for his magisterial dual performances as Smoke and Stack, the couldn’t-be-more-different twin brothers of “Sinners.” Oh, and he won the Screen Actors Guild award, so there's that. Dark horse possibility: Ethan Hawke as Lorenz Hart in “Blue Moon,” a performance and an actor that a lot of people love. If I had to pick someone to reluctantly chuck from this category, it would be Moura, whose work is excellent but primarily reactive. The undervalued Plemons, by contrast, gave the performance of his career as a high-strung conspiracy nut.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, "Hamnet"

Rose Byrne, "If I Had Legs I'd Kick You"

Renate Reinsve, "Sentimental Value"

Emma Stone, "Bugonia"

Kate Hudson, "Song Sung Blue"

Will Win: Jessie Buckley

Should Win: Renate Reinsve

Shouldn't Be Here: Kate Hudson

Was Robbed: Eva Victor, “Sorry, Baby”; Kathleen Chalfant, “Familiar Touch”

It’s Buckley’s to win and in a classic gimme-an-Oscar role: As Agnes Shakespeare, she swoons, she screams, she gives birth (repeatedly) and she mourns her lost son with all stops out. It’s classic Big Acting from a performer who has earned the right (and a loyal fanbase) through her smart and searching work in previous films. The climactic Globe Theatre scene in “Hamnet” is the clincher; for every moviegoer who resists its elemental emotions, there are others (ahem) who are reduced to sobbing wrecks. All that said, I’d swap Buckley’s entire performance for the opening sequence of “Sentimental Value,” in which the neurotic theater actress played by Reinsve has a backstage panic attack for the ages. Hudson is quite good in the sturdy, standard “Song Sung Blue,” but why couldn’t Oscar voters have had the nerve to honor Victor’s writing-directing-acting tour de force in “Sorry, Baby” or Chalfant’s incandescent work as a woman sliding gracefully into dementia?

Best Supporting Actor

Jacob Elordi, "Frankenstein"

Sean Penn, "One Battle After Another"

Stellan Skarsgård, "Sentimental Value"

Benicio del Toro, "One Battle After Another"

Delroy Lindo, "Sinners"

Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård

Should Win: Benicio del Toro

Shouldn't Be Here: Sean Penn

Was Robbed: A$AP Rocky, “Highest 2 Lowest”

A tough field, and you probably shouldn't listen to me, since Sean Penn is the favored pick (he won the Screen Actors Guild award, a reliable bellwether year after year). But support for Skarsgård’s performance as the unreliable father in “Sentimental Value” has been consistent since the movie came out, and a win for him would be a good way to honor an admired player with a long, illustrious career (and a seemingly endless supply of talented sons). Still, del Toro and Lindo have their defenders and deservedly so – the former is the calm center around which the chaos of “One Battle” revolves and the latter is simply the secret soul of “Sinners,” with the weight of history and the blues at his back. If you saw Spike Lee’s Kurosawa remake, you know that A$AP Rocky’s late-inning appearance as an unexpected villain stopped the movie dead in its tracks.

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning, "Sentimental Value"

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, "Sentimental Value"

Amy Madigan, "Weapons"

Wunmi Mosaku, "Sinners"

Teyana Taylor, "One Battle After Another"

Will Win: Amy Madigan

Should Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

Shouldn't Be Here: Elle Fanning

Was Robbed: Mariam Afshari, “It Was Just an Accident”

This has been an interesting race, seemingly Taylor’s to lose until Madigan started racking up guild awards and critics’ group wins. You can see the appeal: A valued supporting actress who’s been out of the spotlight for decades returns in a lulu of a role as the demented comic heart of a very clever horror movie. Fanning and Lilleaas will probably cancel each other out, but the latter gets my vote as the most radiantly normal member of the Borg family. Fanning is arguably overmatched by her co-nominees, but there’s really not a bad performance in the bunch, and I’d be happy to see any of them win. (I’d be happier if Afshari, the cool-headed moral center of “Accident,” had been nominated.)

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

"Bugonia,” Will Tracy

"Frankenstein," Guillermo del Toro

"Hamnet," Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell

"One Battle After Another," Paul Thomas Anderson

"Train Dreams," Clint Bailey and Greg Kwedar

Will Win: “One Battle After Another”

Should Win: “Train Dreams”

Does reading a novel and then writing a completely different script based on the themes and vibe of the first work count as an adaptation? If so, what Paul Thomas Anderson did with and to Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland” deserves its almost certain win. Sleeper choice: Bentley and Kwedar’s transmutation of a slim Denis Johnson novella into a period drama that slowly expands into the cosmic.

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

"Blue Moon," Robert Kaplow

"It Was Just an Accident," Jafar Panahi, with script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian

"Marty Supreme," Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie

"Sentimental Value," Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier

"Sinners," Ryan Coogler

Will Win: “Sinners”

Should Win: “Sinners”

No contest; if “Sinners” wins nothing else, it’s almost guaranteed to win here. This category usually comes early in the evening, so expect Coogler to give his acceptance speech as if it’s the only one he’ll get – and then hope he’s wrong.

Best Animated Feature Film

"Arco"

"Elio"

"KPop Demon Hunters"

"Little Amélie or the Character of Rain"

"Zootopia 2"

Will Win: “KPop Demon Hunters”

Should Win: No opinion 

I've seen only one of the nominees – sorry, I’ve been busy elsewhere – so can’t opine on which is the most deserving of the five. But “KPop” is both a pop-culture phenomenon and a terrifically enjoyable fusion of anime and animation, and no one expects any of the others to win.

Best International Feature Film

"The Secret Agent," Brazil

"It Was Just an Accident," France

"Sentimental Value," Norway

"Sirât," Spain

"The Voice of Hind Rajab," Tunisia

Will Win: “Sentimental Value”

Should Win: “It Was Just an Accident”

Caveat: I still haven’t gotten around to seeing “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” and I know people who think it could be a spoiler. And truth be told, this is one of the tightest categories of the night, with “Sentimental Value” the longtime front-runner, “It was Just an Accident” a great work from a beleaguered filmmaker whose country we’re currently bombing for no reason whatsoever and “The Secret Agent” a sinuous political drama with a hunky leading actor. On top of that, if you’ve seen "Sirât," you know its brutal desert existentialism is something uniquely special. In other words, don’t bet big here.

Best Documentary Feature

"The Perfect Neighbor"

"The Alabama Solution"

"Come See Me in the Good Light"

"Cutting Through Rocks"

"Mr. Nobody Against Putin"

Will Win: “The Perfect Neighbor”

Should Win: No opinion

Again, I’ve been remiss in my duty to see all five documentaries. But I have seen the one heavily favored to win: “The Perfect Neighbor,” a chilling account of a local spat turned fatal and a neighborhood Karen who you beg to see brought to justice, pieced together in its entirety from police body- and dash-cam footage.

Best Casting

"Hamnet," Nina Gold

"Marty Supreme,” Jennifer Venditti

"One Battle After Another,” Cassandra Kulkundis

"The Secret Agent,” Gabriel Domngues

"Sinners,” Francine Maisler

Will Win: “Sinners”

Should Win: “Sinners”

Hey, look, a new category, birthed after years of lobbying from the Casting Society of America. An Oscar for a job that’s both a craft and an art is long overdue; that said, it’s hard to predict who will win since there’s no precedent. “One Battle” has the broadest range of age, race, class and star wattage in its group of actors, and all of them excel at their assignments. But the acting company of “Sinners” may be even more incredible in the intensity of its collective performances. If the voters go for creative choices in casting (Penn Jillette as a Staten Island farmer?) and most colorful rogues' gallery of faces, “Marty Supreme” might take the cake.

Best Film Editing

"F1,” Stephen Mirrione

"Marty Supreme,” Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie

"One Battle After Another,” Andy Jurgensen

"Sentimental Value,” Olivier Bugge Coutté

"Sinners,” Michael P. Shawver

Will Win: “One Battle After Another”

Should Win: “One Battle After Another”

This category is really quite rich in its differing approaches to the art of film editing, with the invisible rhythms of “Sentimental Value” vying against the go-go-go pace of “Marty Supreme,” the deft-by-a-thousand-cuts “F1,” and the soulful brute force of “Sinners.” But Jurgensen’s editing on “One Battle” is a smorgasbord of styles in itself, each one dedicated to rendering its sequence indelible – especially that rollercoaster ride of a car chase toward the end.

Best Cinematography

"Frankenstein,” Dan Laustsen

"Marty Supreme,” Darius Khondji

"One Battle After Another,” Michael Bauman

"Sinners,” Autumn Durald Arkapaw

"Train Dreams,” Adolpho Veloso

Will Win: “One Battle After Another”

Should Win: “Sinners”

“Sinners” and “One Battle” are going head to head here, but since “One Battle” has won the cinematographers’ guild award, it has the edge. Still, don’t count out the voters opting to make history by making Arkapaw the first woman cinematographer of color to win an Oscar. She's more than worthy: That time-traveling juke-joint traveling shot possibly counts as the year’s single greatest movie sequence. Adolpho Veloso’s evocation of a bygone era of the Pacific Northwest deserves some kind of accolade, too.

Best Costume Design

"Avatar: Fire and Ash,” Deborah L. Scott

"Frankenstein,” Kate Hawley

"Hamnet,” Malgosia Turzanska

"Marty Supreme,” Miyako Bellizzi

"Sinners,” Ruth E. Carter

Will Win: “Frankenstein”

Should Win: “Frankenstein”

Hawley’s gorgeous costumes, ripely within period but intriguingly over the top, are the favorites here, unless voters decide to honor tradition and hand Carter her third Oscar.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

"Frankenstein," Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey

"Kokuho,” Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu

"Sinners,” Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry

"The Smashing Machine,” Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein

"The Ugly Stepsister,” Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg

Will Win: “Frankenstein”

Should Win: No opinion

What the makeup artisans hath wrought on Jacob Elordi in transforming the latest sigh-guy into the walking green jigsaw puzzle of “Frankenstein” is well worth the award and is expected to win. I haven’t seen “Kokuho” or “The Ugly Stepsister,” but “The Smashing Machine" deserves credit for making The Rock look like anybody except The Rock.

Best Production Design

"Frankenstein,” Tamara Deverell

"Hamnet,” Fiona Crombie

"Marty Supreme,” Jack Fisk

"One Battle After Another,” Florencia Martin

"Sinners,” Hannah Beachler

Will Win: “Frankenstein”

Should Win: “Sinners”

Expect more love for “Frankenstein” here thanks to its Brobdingnagian sets. That said, it’d be nice to see a legend like Jack Fisk finally win this award after 30 films, three previous nominations, and 55 years in the business.

Best Music (Original Song)

"Golden" from "KPop Demon Hunters"

"Train Dreams" from "Train Dreams"

"Dear Me" from "Diane Warren: Relentless"

"I Lied To You" from "Sinners"

"Sweet Dreams of Joy" from "Viva Verdi!"

Will Win: “Golden”

Should Win: “Train Dreams”

The hit song from “KPop Demon Hunters” is the runaway freight train in this category, but I have a soft spot for the title song from “Train Dreams,” with its raindrop piano notes and Nick Cave’s growly crooning. Diane Warren currently holds the all-time record for most Oscar nominations without a win, at 16. She will retain her title on March 15.

Best Music (Original Score)

"Bugonia," Jerskin Fendrix

"Frankenstein," Alexandre Desplate

"Hamnet," Max Richter

"One Battle After Another," Jonny Greenwood

"Sinners," Ludwig Göransson

Will Win: “Sinners”

Should Win: “Sinners”

Ludwig Göransson will most likely pick up his third Oscar (after “Black Panther” and “Oppenheimer”) for his “Sinners” orchestrations, but this award will be as much for the blues shuffles and primal R&B that electrifies the film’s soundtrack.

Best Sound

"F1"

"Frankenstein"

"One Battle after Another"

"Sinners"

"Sirāt"

Will Win: “F1”

Should Win: “Sirāt”

Vroom-vroom-vroom is all you need to know: “F1” wins this one by several laps. But the body-shaking rave beats early in “Sirāt” brilliantly set up the unforgiving desert allegory of the second half.

Best Visual Effects

"Avatar: Fire and Ash"

"F1″

"Jurassic World Rebirth"

"The Lost Bus"

"Sinners"

Will Win: "Avatar: Fire and Ash"

Should Win: No opinion

James Cameron remains the king of the world, at least in this category, as his “Avatar” films continue to represent the state of the art. Otherwise give it to “F1.”

Best Animated Short Film

"Butterfly"

"Forevergreen"

"The Girl Who Cried Pearls"

"Retirement Plan"

"The Three Sisters"

Will Win: “Butterfly”

Should Win: “Butterfly” or “Retirement Plan”

The delicate pastel washes of “Butterfly” tell an incredible true story of Olympic victory and Holocaust survival – it’s likely to win and deserves to. “Retirement Plan” seems absurdly simple at first but gathers a surprising power; it’s my personal favorite in this line-up.

Best Live Action Short Film

"Butcher's Stain"

"A Friend of Dorothy"

"Jane Austen's Period Drama"

"The Singers"

"Two People Exchanging Saliva"

Will Win: "A Friend of Dorothy"

Should Win: "The Singers"

“A Friend of Dorothy” is a sentimental crowd-pleaser with topical touchstones and a hammy lead performance by Miriam Margolyes; it’s the worst of the bunch, but it’ll win. “Two People Exchanging Saliva” is the weirdest and most creative, while “The Singers,” set in a dive bar where all the winos have a song bursting from their hearts, is the sparest and most memorable.

Best Documentary Short

"All the Empty Rooms"

"Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud"

"Children No More: Were and Are Gone"

"The Devil Is Busy"

"Perfectly a Strangeness"

Will Win: "All the Empty Rooms"

Should Win: "The Devil Is Busy"

It’s a toss-up between the riveting one-day-at-an-abortion-clinic short “The Devil is Busy” and the heartrending “All the Empty Rooms,” which memorializes victims of school shootings by touring their unchanged bedrooms. The latter is expected to win.

Let's hear your predictions (or comments on the foolishness of the whole affair – we're certainly allowed). Feel free to leave a comment or add to someone else's.

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